I'll start by saying I don't weight W/L of QBs nearly as heavily as most when evaluating a player. Those are team stats, and while the QB undoubtedly has the biggest role in a W/L of any of the 22 players, it takes a lot more than just a QB to win a game. There are exceptions. Brady. Manning. Brees. These guys can carry a team to wins, but most QBs do not. So you frame it like Dalton went to the playoffs, I see it more as he was along for the ride.
He was a 4 year starter in college. He will turn 27 next year, and frankly, I just don't see any room for growth in his game. He was never a "high ceiling" player coming into the league, and I think he has physical limitations (not to mention he obvious mental ones) that prevent him from even sniffing being a top 10 QB. I think he is maybe in the 18-22 range, which is where he will always be. He will never ascend higher than that from everything I've seen and know about him. The 18-22 range for me would include guys like your boy Henne or Snow's boy Flacco, both of whom are guys I feel could have easily replicated Dalton's success if put into his position in Cincinnati.
Do I think he is a starting caliber player? Sure. But investing in him like it is rumored Cincy will (5 years 95 mill) is just crazy. You cannot pay an average starter elite QB money and expect things to go well. The reason elite QBs are paid like that is because they elevate players around them, something we have not seen one bit from Dalton, who is only as good as the receiver he is throwing to.
Andy Dalton is your typical 2014 fantasy pleaser and will impress the box score watchers. If you actually watch many Bengals games, which sadly I did as someone who owned AJ Green in 3 fantasy leagues last season, and you see a really pedestrian player. Not only is he inconsistent from game to game, but snap to snap, which is not exactly what you want from your signal caller. It is obvious that AJ Green makes that offense tick, and if he had a better QB to work with the Bengals would be truly scary. Dalton is like a rich man's Mark Sanchez with all of the Blue decisions he makes.
People fail to realize just how good these Bengals teams are, and personally, I blame Dalton's mediocrity for disguising these Bengals as beasts. They had a defense ranked in the top 5 in yards and points and they were 3rd causing turnovers. They have studs all over from Geno Atkins to Michael Johnson & Carlos Dunlap off the edges, Maualuga, Burfect, Leon Hall... They put the Bengals offense into position to succeed all season long. Dalton took advantage of it some of the time.
Offensively he obviously has the luxury of AJ Green, but they also had the #2 pass protecting offensive line in football, and realistically it was probably #1 because the Broncos protections stats are skewed by Manning's release being so godly. Personally if I had the best pass protection and a top 3 WR along with some other solid weapons offensively I wouldn't expect my QB to be near the lead league in turnovers, but that is just me.
The biggest issue is, Dalton plays his best against terrible teams and shrinks to Christian Ponder levels of bad when his team needs him to come up big. As Snow has pointed out time and time again, you can win a SB with a QB like Flacco if he gets hot at the right time and you have a great team around him. The same could technically be true of the Bungholes and Cincy, but Dalton is the disappearing man against good teams. Just for a second imagine the Bengals with Cam Newton or Matt Ryan at QB. They would legitimately be a 3rd contender with NE and DEN. I realize guys like Cam don't grow on trees, but that doesn't mean you panic and throw money at average gingers.
I cannot just gloss over Dalton's postseason failures as "well he hasn't won, but its only been 0-3..."
Sorry, but when you are stinking it up as bad as he has, it needs to be talked about. The Bengals average 11 damn points per game in 3 playoff games under Dalton. And it isn't even like they are playing fucking juggernauts. They lost twice to Houston and once to SD, those teams combined to win exactly 0 playoff games against non-Bengals teams, so they weren't bowing out to the SB champs or anything. They were losing to bad/mediocre teams by playoff standards. And they weren't just losing, they were being throttled and/or losing almost directly because of how terrible Dalton was playing himself.
I know he had 30 TDs. I know he had a lot of yards. But there is more to life than the back of the football card, and if you really look at how/when he put up the big numbers it is a lot less impressive.
Throwing 5 TDs or 4 TDs at home against hapless teams like NYJ or MIN might impress some, but when he comes up so small not only in playoff games but constantly against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, his direct competitors, I just can't take the hollow numbers very seriously. His body language in big games just makes me want to puke. He looks like he doesn't want to be there. He refuses to take responsibility when he plays like shit in the playoffs. I just would want no part of him as my QB probably period, let alone for 15 mill per.
Bottom line, this Bengals team is ready to compete for things much bigger than Dalton is capable of allowing for them to compete for. He is a mediocre QB talent wise with a backup QB's mentality. He blows up when it doesn't matter and shits his pants when it does.
