This is what I've found. Had to go back so much through all them posts (thank fuck for the search function).
First post comes across as throwing out a name to see what sticks and if anyone will run with it to earn some points if a scum flip happens. Good distancing. A lot of fence sitting too with the questioning of himself.
Second one is odd cos he was seemingly on Smark but jumps over to suss Ekko, even though he points out that Poyser's posts aren't convincing (but enough to put a vote). Trusting year old meta over a series of posts is a little red flag for me.
Again he shifts back towards Smark with the Juice vouching thing, but walks it back with a ready made out just in case it goes pear shaped. (Clarify - he says scum Smark won't do it, but then says he can't rule anything out D1).
Fourth post he's now walked back that Smark read and started to distance away to buy himself more town cred. Others (Poyser included who he didn't trust as convincing earlier on but now makes him hesitant, and then uses John as a reference who just wasn't doing much to convince at this stage) have made him lean back on this viewpoint. Seems a tad strange.