The Political Thread

[Chris]

I'm not trying to convince you to vote Biden though?

 

[OMB]

Not saying u r lol

 

[Chris]

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FiveThirtyEight busted out the interactive model this one is cool bc for instance if you select Biden winning California, nothing changes bc of course he's gonna win California, same with Trump in like West Virginia, doesn't change the forecast. But if you start messing with the swing states it factors in for example "if Trump wins Florida, then he will most likely do better in Ohio" (I just made those states up, they may not correlate) and you can try different combinations of states to see how it would result in a victory for either guy.

 

[Swamps]

Well he commuted 90 minutes to and from work everyday to be with his kids and got to know all the workers on the train. Can't be that bad.

We get it. Orange Man Bad. Great argument.

Also Chris, when is the last time a Republican actually won California? Wasn't it like Regan? Hell,, I may be off with that one.

 

[Chris]

We get it. Orange Man Bad. Great argument.

Also Chris, when is the last time a Republican actually won California? Wasn't it like Regan? Hell,, I may be off with that one.

Yeah, a quick Google says that they were always Republican (with an exception of 1964) until 1992 when they overwhelmingly supported Slick Willy and has been blue ever since.

 

[OMB]

Thats a cool model

 

[Barry Poppins]

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I'm personally predicting this outcome for the election:

Biden: Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Hawaii, Ohio, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine

Trump: Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia

The US will be split right down the middle 25/25, but Biden wins the swing states of Iowa, Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Biden wins the election 310-224 against Donald Trump.

I think the margin for error on my prediction is pretty good all things considered, I expect either Georgia, Texas, or Florida to actually pull a surprise Biden nom.
​

Feel free to call me crazy Swamps if you disagree with this model.

 

[OMB]

Idk if biden wins arz Colorado lol

 

[Swamps]

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I'm personally predicting this outcome for the election:

Biden: Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Hawaii, Ohio, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine

Trump: Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia

The US will be split right down the middle 25/25, but Biden wins the swing states of Iowa, Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Biden wins the election 310-224 against Donald Trump.

I think the margin for error on my prediction is pretty good all things considered, I expect either Georgia, Texas, or Florida to actually pull a surprise Biden nom.
​

Feel free to call me crazy Swamps if you disagree with this model.

I aint going to call you crazy, nor am I going to tell you how to vote. Nor am I going to dislike you because of a difference of opinions. Hell, what do you think this place is? The other place that censors those whom disagree?

 

[Swamps]

Idk if biden wins arz Colorado lol

Colorado has had a lot of California transplants in recent years. It wouldn't shock me.

 

[Barry Poppins]

Idk if biden wins arz Colorado lol

Biden is heavily favored to win both Colorado and New Mexico, and is slightly favored to win Arizona. Suppose Trump wins those states and the election otherwise goes as I predicted, Biden still wins the election 284-254.

 

[Chris]

Trump could easily upset in Arizona and if he does will probably perform better in Colorado than the polls predict but I can't see him actually winning Colorado regardless.

 

[Barry Poppins]

This was also taking into account Trump taking Iowa too, btw. If Biden takes Iowa it's actually 290-248.

In my scenario, Trump wins the election if he takes Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado altogether, and not one of them becomes a Biden state. Iowa = 272, Ohio = 284, CO = 275, NM = 271, and Arizona = 277 Electoral Votes for Biden if even one of them flips. Trump's entire campaign comes down to those five states. If one of them flips blue, I don't see Trump winning the election outside of Michigan or Wisconsin somehow going red.

 

[Swamps]

This was also taking into account Trump taking Iowa too, btw. If Biden takes Iowa it's actually 290-248.

In my scenario, Trump wins the election if he takes Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado altogether, and not one of them becomes a Biden state. Iowa = 272, Ohio = 284, CO = 275, NM = 271, and Arizona = 277 Electoral Votes for Biden if even one of them flips. Trump's entire campaign comes down to those five states. If one of them flips blue, I don't see Trump winning the election outside of Michigan or Wisconsin somehow going red.

The riots have actually pushed Trump as a favorite to win Wisconsin. He does have huge support in Ohio as well. I know nothing about Michigan. Outside of Atlanta, Trump wins Georgia.

I'm curious as to what these polls are actually looking at when determining the outcome.

 

[Barry Poppins]

The riots have actually pushed Trump as a favorite to win Wisconsin. He does have huge support in Ohio as well. I know nothing about Michigan. Outside of Atlanta, Trump wins Georgia.

I'm curious as to what these polls are actually looking at when determining the outcome.

According to the interactive map:

How this works: We start with the 40,000 simulations that our election forecast runs every time it updates. When you choose the winner of a state or district, we throw out any simulations where the outcome you picked didn’t happen and recalculate the candidates’ chances using just the simulations that are left. If you choose enough unlikely outcomes, we’ll eventually wind up with so few simulations remaining that we can’t produce accurate results. When that happens, we go back to our full set of simulations and run a series of regressions to see how your scenario might look if it turned up more often.

In simplified terms, the regressions start off by looking at the vote share for each candidate in every simulation and seeing how the rest of the map changed in response to big or small wins. So let’s say you picked Trump to win Texas. In some of our simulations, Trump may have won Texas very narrowly and also have narrowly lost some toss-up states. But in simulations where he won Texas by a big margin, he may also have won big in toss-up states and pulled some Democratic-leaning states into his column, while the reverse may be true in simulations where he lost the state. We figure out how every other state tended to look in that full range of scenarios, tracking not just whether the candidate usually won other states but also how much he generally won or lost each one by.

After all that, we take some representative examples of scenarios that include the picks you made and use what we learned from our regression analysis to adjust all 40,000 simulations, and then recalculate state and national win probabilities. Finally, we blend those adjusted simulations with any of the original simulations that still apply and produce a final forecast.

*Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.