The Political Thread

[Hidden Blaze]

That'd require movin' to California so you'll have to stick to 6.

Some parts of California would be the same way of thinking of you. Just stay away from LA and places like that.


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[Chris]

So two weeks until election and the FiveThirtyEight models are predicting a huge Democrat success overall.....though they do keep reminding everyone that 1 in 6 still means that it's the same odds you have of rolling a one on a 6-sided die after 2016 was a 1/4 chance according to their models

But rn Biden has an 87/100 chance of winning (Hillary was at around 75/100 on election night I believe for comparison, which is where Biden was around the time of the first debate). Some polls even have him winning Georgia and he was actually the slightest of favorites there in the FTE model for just a couple days until it swung back to Trump being the slight favorite.

House EZ dem win most, 95% chance of retaining control. Would be insane if that was wrong IMO.

The senate is the real interesting one though, shockingly (to me at least), the Dems are favored to take control of the Senate outright with a 74% chance to do so as of today. The average amount of seats is 52 by democrats which is only a slight majority, they actually think the likely outcome could be anywhere between 52 republican seats or 55 democrat seats so that one could easily swing either way no problem. If anything I think I'd expect it to. I can't see Dems winning the senate, but the reason they have such a chance is bc there's much more republican seats open this year I believe.

 

[Chris]

Oh my apologies as well bc all of these models can be found here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

They have a lot of different stats to look at that are cool af for me, can see each individual house/senate race along with each state's presidential forecast.

 

[Swamps]

I voted by Absentee ballot earlier this month.

 

[Chris]

Conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died on Feb. 13, 2016. About an hour after his death was confirmed, McConnell said the Senate shouldn’t confirm his replacement until after the election.

"The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president," McConnell said.

McConnell went on to consistently oppose holding hearings on President Barack Obama’s nominee, Judge Merrick Garland.

"The American people may well elect a President who decides to nominate Judge Garland for Senate consideration. The next president may also nominate someone very different. Either way, our view is this: Give the people a voice in the filling of this vacancy," McConnell said in a Senate floor speech March 16, 2016.

Senator McConnell has announced the Senate will vote to confirm a new Justice this coming Monday one week before the election

 

[Kim Jong Umb]

Jesus if Biden wins i may never hear my dad stop bitching for next 4 years-.-

 

[Swamps]

Jesus if Biden wins i may never hear my dad stop bitching for next 4 years-.-

We will be ok, either way it turns out bro.

 

[Sabretooth]

Jesus if Biden wins i may never hear my dad stop bitching for next 4 years-.-

I can’t take four more years of fantasy land Trump. I wish the Dems had a better candidate but at least Biden is a decent human being who doesn’t burn every single fucking bridge around him and thinks he’s king.

 

[Kim Jong Umb]

I can’t take four more years of fantasy land Trump. I wish the Dems had a better candidate but at least Biden is a decent human being who doesn’t burn every single fucking bridge around him and thinks he’s king.

Decent human being maybe a stretch on both these guys

 

[Sabretooth]

Decent human being maybe a stretch on both these guys

Well he commuted 90 minutes to and from work everyday to be with his kids and got to know all the workers on the train. Can't be that bad.

 

[Kim Jong Umb]

Well he commuted 90 minutes to and from work everyday to be with his kids and got to know all the workers on the train. Can't be that bad.

I can tell you there's pleanty of people who can love there family and still be shitty people

 

[Sabretooth]

I can tell you there's pleanty of people who can love there family and still be shitty people

Anyone is a saint compared to Trump lol

 

[Kim Jong Umb]

Anyone is a saint compared to Trump lol

i got no dog in the fight either way i mean i hope i get to continue to work at my job and we dont go into another llockdown but i dont think Biden is as clean as people think

 

[Chris]

I've never heard anyone suggest Biden is clean tbh lmao just "at least he's not Trump"

 

[Kim Jong Umb]

I've never heard anyone suggest Biden is clean tbh lmao just "at least he's not Trump"

Not really a outstanding endorsement that argument im Independent so i mean