I agree about the part, that tonight they must deliver.  This is probably the biggest card I've seen since i've started watching ROH.  If they F' this up, i think they are going to lose a handful of faithful fans. 
Let me example as to why, I think Aries winning doesnt make sense:
Now that he's beating Nigel, he's basically in line for "another"  title shot.  I think he's ran out of chances to beat Nigel in my opinion.  
As far as Jacobs/Black breaking, I REALLY do hope this is all a swerve to beat Aries.  I'll ROH credit if its a swerve, because a swerve here, makes total sense.  Jacobs and Necro just broke up, its too early to have Black go solo, imo.  SLOW BUILD.  You know.