Death on the Nile [A Detective Adventure Part II]

[Sister Abigail]

@Switchblade @McNightstalker

If you two want to win this game, iso each other, tell us how the other has team equity with Mando and Lethal and that you don't. At this point we'll go around in circles accusing each other with lies and untruths. We have two dead Wolves and that should be enough to analyze possible teams.

 

[Kross Rhodes]

It should be 33% non-town.

 

[John McHenry]

It should be 33% non-town.

So 2 mafia 1 outed vig?

 

[Kross Rhodes]

So 2 mafia 1 outed vig?

Survivor too.

 

[Kross Rhodes]

Two survivors, actually.

 

[John McHenry]

Or 1 mafia, 1 vig, 1 sk?

 

[John McHenry]

Survivor too.

I had survivor as vig in that

 

[Kross Rhodes]

Or 1 mafia, 1 vig, 1 sk?

There’s definitely a SK. Tweet lying makes no sense.

 

[Kross Rhodes]

If y’all just want to lynch today to see trust my info, do it.

As long as mafia can’t win tonight.

There’s virtually no way I could flip a townie yesterday and convince town to not lynch me or Lethal today. It’s practically impossible for me to be lying on McHenry.

 

[John McHenry]

@Switchblade @McNightstalker

If you two want to win this game, iso each other, tell us how the other has team equity with Mando and Lethal and that you don't. At this point we'll go around in circles accusing each other with lies and untruths. We have two dead Wolves and that should be enough to analyze possible teams.

I'm completly cool with that. But switch won't be.

 

[Wangman Page]

If anyone doesn't think I'm Town by now, that'd be pretty wild.

Yeah I agree with this but you never know.



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[Sister Abigail]

I think what holds true yesterday still holds true today and that if McHenry flipped town after I was already saying lethal was definitely the option today what my game plan would’ve been today and if you can’t see a way for me out of that I think it’s pretty easy to see the way forward.

But say that we mislynched McNight last day. Say that scum and SK hit different targets. That's six players left, with two Wolves, one SK, two Town, and one Survivor. Assuming Mafia shoots me to eliminate my DV, Town doesn't straight up have the numbers to lynch scum. All Lethal and his partner has to do is either manipulate or follow Tweet on a vote or hope to maybe sneakily work with SK somehow. Hell, if SK would have been somehow lynched after a McNight mislynch, then I think Mafia would have reached their wincon. I think that if you hadn't spilled info last day, Lethal was on his way out the door for sure. Playing with two Wolves and six players is a lot better than one Wolf and six players. I think that there still could have been a chance for Town to win had McNight been lynched and flipped Town, but I think my other scenarios are very realistic as well.

 

[Sister Abigail]

What do we think the counts are and why? Like How do we know we're not down to the last 1 or 2 mafia?

@Switchblade you good with numbers?

Based on the presence of a SK and two Survivors, I think balance would be skewed for Town if there were a four-person Wolf team.

 

[Tweet]

Right so the way I see it we're looking at two mutually exclusive options:

1. Smark is telling the truth and McHenry is scum. In that case, Smark got blocked n2 and McHenry didn't hear the song either because he wasn't at home or because he's straight up lying about it.

2. Smark is scum and faking info on McHenry. In that case Jeff would've been blocked n2 and Smark is lying about getting blocked.

As far as arguments for either options go, Option 1 has going for it that faking info at this stage shouldn't allow scum to win the game yet so there's not much reason to do it at all. Option 2 could be real because Smark apparently didn't react to Jeff when he said he was likely blocked n2.

I really wanna hit scum today

 

[Tweet]

7 dudes alive, split is likely 4/2/1/1

I kinda wonder why both mafia and SK went for T-Pein, I woulda bet 80% of all I own that Abi wasn't gonna survive last night.