The default position has to be that it was real. There is no hard evidence that it was a work. It is all speculation. The two people involved, Hart and McMahon, insist that it was real. So yes, that is the correct default. Until someone who was actually involved in the screwjob gives any evidence that it was a work, apart from speculation, that is what their is the most evidence for.
out of the belt.
@baseballmm said it best, many fans were young at the time, also the online world of wrestling wasn't that big back then and many fans took some things for granted. Best example is ECW.
WWE and ECW were in a working relationship and Vince McMahon helped ECW financially many times yet in the 90s many ECW fans hated WWE and thought the two companies were enemies (watch how many ECW fans were anti-WWE in the documentary Beyond the Mat). Later it was revealed that the WWE-ECW hate was a work but that didn't stop many ECW fans to be still anti-WWE at ECW reunion shows because they believed something for a decade and telling the truth after so many years wouldn't change how the fans feel.
People claim that it is a work because Hart should have seen a screwjob coming. The truth is that he had talked to Big Van Vader, who told him that Vince might screw him. Vader had seen that happen in Japan. He told Hart to not stay in a submission hold for too long and to keep his shoulders off the mat. So yes, Hart was warned. Watch the match and you'll see he did follow Vader's advice.
And it's not like Vince hasn't done this before. He did it to Wendy Richter, having Moolah screw her out of the belt.
I have no problems to believe that a screwjob can happen or that McMahon was able to instruct the ref to ring the bell but what makes it hard to believe is the way how McMahon was portrayed at the PPV. First Michael Cole asking McMahon before the match who will win and McMahon smiling like the evil Mr. McMahon character saying " I don't know but I will make the things right to make everything will go down as planned,", McMahon interfering in the match yelling at both guys for no reason, being near the announce table watching the match, his first PPV in years with him not being a commentator. It was not just "be careful of submission holds", the whole PPV had that weird vibe, like a bad mafia movie and Bret wasn't aware?
And some people don't think it's a work because Bret should have seen this coming, they think it's a work because Bret was the whole year involved in matches and segments complaining how he was kayfabe screwed by Vince and his company and suddenly it happened for real?
Speculation is not evidence. I think at Wrestlemania 22, Hart attended the Hall of Fame ceremony.. This was mostly because he was allowed to talk about Owen Hart the entire time. However, he refused to make a Wrestlemania appearance with the others. That indicates real animosity. He did something for his brother, but refused to do something for Wrestlemania.
This is a touchy subject so i don't if that's true but I believe the real animosity is because the company forced his brother to do a dangerous stunt leading to his death but that's only my opinion.
Yeah, but again, the default position is that it is real. Until Bret Hart or Vince McMahon tells us it was fake, it was real.
Let's say I am right and the Screwjob was a work, why would the two guys involved in a business that consists of storylines and works have the responsibility to tell anything? I don't see anybody asking if Austin was a criminal because he tried to kill Triple H at Survivor Series 2000 (of course the segment with Austin, Triple H and the car was over the top and obviously a storyline but it's still a storyline just like the Screwjob). Maybe the Screwjob as work was at that moment the best solution to make a win-win situation for everybody but after so many years they have realized they have created a part of wrestling history so why ruin it?
I want to add something too. The idea that it was a work because everyone benefited from it is a logical fallacy. It is called Escape to the future. No one knew for sure that they would benefit from the screwjob. You can't tell the future. WWF did plenty of things they thought would benefit everyone, but it didn't. So that argument is invalid. It was very possible that the screwjob could have ruined everyone involved in it. There was no way to know beforehand.
Actually not, McMahon as the evil boss, Attitude Era being more realistic and controversial, Austin vs. McMahon, Bret leaving for WCW, Shawn as the heel champion heading to WrestleMania, Bret not losing the belt (one idea was Bret vacating the belt next night on Raw) was already planned (and Bret didn't lost, he never said I quit and never tapped out). Bret wasn't unlucky because of the Screwjob, he was unlucky because of how he was used after the Screwjob and then Over the Edge 1999 and Goldberg's kick made things worse for his career and life.
One important thing I have mentioned but is ignored is that as soon as it was announced online that Bret would leave he got booed in Canada and received "You sold out" chants, that's why he was involved in patriotic angles and faced wrestlers who talked bad about Canada to save him. Bret vacating his belt on Raw would make things worse because he would confirm it "I give up this belt and will leave tonight because the other promotion gives me more money"
The other option was him losing his title clean in his last WWE match but that would not make things better. It's one thing to lose his belt and then take a break but most fans knew as long as he's losing the title he will be out for more money so that would make the "you sold out" chants even stronger. The screwjob was the best thing for Bret because it made the fans feel sorry for him overshadowing the "you sold out" thing and at the same time he never really lost the match and his title.
You say nobody could guarantee that WWE would benefit from it and it could ruin everything. True, but keep in mind that WWE at that time was #2 and that WCW was red hot only a month before the epic Hogan vs. Sting match so they had nothing to lose. That was the same situation like in the late 1996 when they decided to make edgier television. WWE was known for the cartoonish, family friendly sports entertainment so there was a big possibility that an edgier and TV-14 WWE could backfire (just like it backfired in WCW because Russo TV was not WCW style) but they took a risk and it worked. Attitude Era was 50x a bigger risk for WWE than the Screwjob.