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Morning all,
Appologies for length, but this is something I've been thinking about and I wanted to throw it out there for you guys to think on
There's a TL/DR just above the table below if you don't want the thought process.
For those that didn't skip: we're into our fourth month of the World Prediction Rankings now and, as we're bringing new people in fairly often, we're beginning to see what the negative effect of deciding the rankings table on a winning percentage is.
New comers enter the competition and, (assuming they predict well) jump straight to the top of the rankings table because their winning percentage will be higher, because they've predicted on less matches.
The reason winning percentages work in sports is because eventually, everybody will play the same number of regular season games, but with people jumping in through the year here, and others predicting from the very beginning that simply won't happen with our Prediction Competiton.
That said, as with the few rule changes we've made so far, I'd like to offer a suggestion to you guys and allow you to decide on a fair way of ranking our competitors moving forwards.
The caveat is that any changes made will not take place until after the King of the Ring finals - I've already stated how KOTR qualification will work and I don't think it's fair to pull the rug out from anybody that may currently be qualified but wouldn't be under any new system we instigate. As the way challenging for the prediction title will work changes after the KOTR is crowned, I think that's a good time to implement any changes to the rankings system too.
My suggestion:
In my opinion, publishing the rankings based on the new metric of wins - losses (winning difference) is a better fit for our competition. By doing it this way longevity, a factor that absolutely needs to be considered, can be a positive rather than a negative, as making lots of predictions and doing well will improve your (Wins - Losses) record. As it stands it's actually a bigger positive to make fewer predictions and do well as you'll have a higher winning percentage - this is why we've seen newcomers like Raidokken and Cwalker jump straight to the top of the rankings on their debut events.
Ranking on wins minus losses/winning difference doesn't greatly penalise new comers either, as you can see on the table below (based on the actual figures but ranked on winning difference instead of winning percentage/total) After only 23 matches predicted, Raidokken still cracks the top 5 while other players with a greater longevity but a lower success rate are much further down the table.
This system, I believe, lowers the advantage that simple longevity brings. If we take Jeffatron and Pat as the comparison point, using a wins only system Pat would rank higher than Jeff despite having a loosing record, but using this system Jeff ranks higher because he's got more of his predictions right. As it is now, based on winning percentage, Jeff is in fourth place despite only predicting on 10 matches, so as can be seen from the table below this system also eliminates the advantage that making less predictions gives competitors.
In good old Reddit style, the too long didn't read:
Essentially I believe that the current ranking system is biased towards newcomers and people that are doing really well for a long time should see a benefit for their longevity and ability to predict well. I believe basing the rankings on the difference between wins and losses would achieve that goal.
What do you think?
Example of the table if it were based on Winning Difference:
Appologies for length, but this is something I've been thinking about and I wanted to throw it out there for you guys to think on
There's a TL/DR just above the table below if you don't want the thought process.
For those that didn't skip: we're into our fourth month of the World Prediction Rankings now and, as we're bringing new people in fairly often, we're beginning to see what the negative effect of deciding the rankings table on a winning percentage is.
New comers enter the competition and, (assuming they predict well) jump straight to the top of the rankings table because their winning percentage will be higher, because they've predicted on less matches.
The reason winning percentages work in sports is because eventually, everybody will play the same number of regular season games, but with people jumping in through the year here, and others predicting from the very beginning that simply won't happen with our Prediction Competiton.
That said, as with the few rule changes we've made so far, I'd like to offer a suggestion to you guys and allow you to decide on a fair way of ranking our competitors moving forwards.
The caveat is that any changes made will not take place until after the King of the Ring finals - I've already stated how KOTR qualification will work and I don't think it's fair to pull the rug out from anybody that may currently be qualified but wouldn't be under any new system we instigate. As the way challenging for the prediction title will work changes after the KOTR is crowned, I think that's a good time to implement any changes to the rankings system too.
My suggestion:
In my opinion, publishing the rankings based on the new metric of wins - losses (winning difference) is a better fit for our competition. By doing it this way longevity, a factor that absolutely needs to be considered, can be a positive rather than a negative, as making lots of predictions and doing well will improve your (Wins - Losses) record. As it stands it's actually a bigger positive to make fewer predictions and do well as you'll have a higher winning percentage - this is why we've seen newcomers like Raidokken and Cwalker jump straight to the top of the rankings on their debut events.
Ranking on wins minus losses/winning difference doesn't greatly penalise new comers either, as you can see on the table below (based on the actual figures but ranked on winning difference instead of winning percentage/total) After only 23 matches predicted, Raidokken still cracks the top 5 while other players with a greater longevity but a lower success rate are much further down the table.
This system, I believe, lowers the advantage that simple longevity brings. If we take Jeffatron and Pat as the comparison point, using a wins only system Pat would rank higher than Jeff despite having a loosing record, but using this system Jeff ranks higher because he's got more of his predictions right. As it is now, based on winning percentage, Jeff is in fourth place despite only predicting on 10 matches, so as can be seen from the table below this system also eliminates the advantage that making less predictions gives competitors.
In good old Reddit style, the too long didn't read:
Essentially I believe that the current ranking system is biased towards newcomers and people that are doing really well for a long time should see a benefit for their longevity and ability to predict well. I believe basing the rankings on the difference between wins and losses would achieve that goal.
What do you think?
Example of the table if it were based on Winning Difference:
| Rank | Competitor | Wins | Losses | Total | W - L (Winning Difference) |
1 | Jimmy King | 40 | 13 | 0.755 | 27 |
2 | Chris | 35 | 18 | 0.660 | 17 |
3 | Doom | 34 | 19 | 0.642 | 15 |
4 | Booty | 33 | 20 | 0.623 | 13 |
5 | Raidokken | 17 | 6 | 0.739 | 11 |
6 | The EC | 32 | 21 | 0.604 | 11 |
7 | Davey Wrestling | 32 | 21 | 0.604 | 11 |
8 | Cwalker | 13 | 4 | 0.765 | 9 |
9 | Lady Hotrod | 16 | 9 | 0.640 | 7 |
10 | Grim | 22 | 15 | 0.595 | 7 |
11 | Sky | 22 | 15 | 0.595 | 7 |
12 | OMB | 30 | 23 | 0.566 | 7 |
13 | Mitch Perfect | 16 | 11 | 0.593 | 5 |
14 | Blaze | 29 | 24 | 0.547 | 5 |
15 | Jeffatron | 7 | 3 | 0.700 | 4 |
16 | HoHo | 20 | 17 | 0.541 | 3 |
17 | Petty Timberlake | 20 | 17 | 0.541 | 3 |
18 | GOD | 27 | 26 | 0.509 | 1 |
19 | TeaDrinkingLimey | 5 | 5 | 0.500 | 0 |
20 | Pat | 10 | 11 | 0.476 | -1 |
21 | Juice | 3 | 7 | 0.300 | -4 |
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but like people who play more, do deserve to have the better results on this. Because someone could come in near the end of the year and finish at the top, screwing someone who played from the start and was at the top year round.
