It's essentially proven that if you reach the 40 point mark, you're going to be safe from relegation. I think once, maybe twice, since the Premier League was established that that has been proven otherwise. Teams place a heavy emphasis on the 40 point mark, and based off that there are 9 teams completely guaranteed survival - The Manchesters, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, West Brom & Swansea. That leaves 11 teams.
To me, something horrible would have to occur in the final 10 games for Fulham, Stoke, Norwich, Newcastle & West Ham to be relegated, so I'd say it's a matter of time before they all hit the 40 point mark and can breathe easy. This now leaves 6 teams.
I think the relegation battle is down to Sunderland, Southampton, Aston Villa, Wigan, Reading & QPR. Frankly Sunderland shouldn't be anywhere near it as they have some quality players and a top manager and haven't been in complete disarray like QPR have been pretty much all season. They should survive, so should Southampton, but I think the other team that'll join them will be either Aston Villa or QPR (yes I said that). I can't see Reading beating the drop now that they ridiculously sacked Brian McDermott, and surely Wigan's exploits in the FA Cup will harm yet another escape. Villa have shown great signs recently, winning two consecutive matches and playing well against us and Man City. QPR have a talented squad and a top manager who has pulled of a great escape before, so I give them a very slim chance.
So yeah, for me it'll be Wigan, Reading and Aston Villa/QPR.