That's my big problem when I draw vanilla town. I feel like I have no real ability to help, so I just throw a vote down with whoever I trust and hope for the best. I'm a horrible VT player.
Blaze, in my first game here, I sent a message to "The South" in the Civil War game...and posted it in the game thread. Fortunately, I hadn't mentioned any of my scum mates, but I cleared 2-3 townies in a single message.
Grim woulda made it further if he hadn't said he was voting McHenry before D2. John with a SK tagged him for it.
As far as your second point, everyone is gonna have more bad reads than good in most games. When you're basing it off typed words on a forum, I think you're gonna miss more than you hit.
Having said that, playing with the caliber of players here has helped me a ton. My first game (last game at WC), I was the town drunk (vanilla townie) and I legit thought I needed to post like I was drunk. Had no idea what I was doing. Gip mentioned not liking my posts on D1, and I went into full defensive mode. Fell apart right off the bat lol