General Chit-Chat Thread: A New Beginning

[Chris]

I liked his original 538 method and how he didn't seem to actually care about politics and was just a numbers nerd but now he's become too much of a numbers nerd with betting odds

 

[Chris]

Another reason why you shouldn't take poll results for facts

do people think I do this when I post them bc I also don't think they should be ignored either lol theres data from them, only dummies take the extreme of taking them for facts or ignoring them completely

 

[Death By Looch]

Fun fact, 1876 Election had the highest voter turnout of any election before or since, 82.6%

Well, okay. That's pretty much impossible to beat, unless you go full fascist dictatorship with required voting

 

[Chris]

It feels like the wrestling ratings conversation lol they don't have to matter to you, you don't have to care about the numbers, but you shouldnt pretend advertisers don't

 

[Grimoire Lenin]

Lolol well the 76 election was the one where basically the Democrats gave Rutherford B. Hayes the election as a Republican as long as he was willing to end Reconstruction and let black people be persecuted in the South.

 

[Death By Looch]

do people think I do this when I post them bc I also don't think they should be ignored either lol theres data from them, only dummies take the extreme of taking them for facts or ignoring them completely

I dunno what people think about you posting them. I personally don't think people shouldn't pay as much attention to them as many do.

 

[Chris]

I think people should pay more attention to them but actually look at what they mean instead of thinking a 51% poll being wrong means everything is a lie

 

[Chris]

But in general humans don't really get stats, that's why we've been able to name so many different fallacies

 

[Comrade Khan]

what I get from the polls is most people are entrenched and not changing positions

 

[Chris]

Like the easy example is something is given a 75% chance of happening. If that 25% chance happens, everyone loses their shit about how wrong it was. But I'd you look at it as 1 on 4 times this happens, they start to think a little different (if they aren't already seeing red for being lied to)

 

[Comrade Khan]

does not seem like much sways either side much

 

[Comrade Khan]

Like the easy example is something is given a 75% chance of happening. If that 25% chance happens, everyone loses their shit about how wrong it was. But I'd you look at it as 1 on 4 times this happens, they start to think a little different (if they aren't already seeing red for being lied to)

yeah people need to roll more dice and theyd understand more lol. 25% is still relatively good chance in gambling for example

 

[Comrade Khan]

id for sure take a bet on a 25% high pay out bet lol

 

[Comrade Khan]

banal example but I played a lot of Warhammer. In warhammer, there's really strong armor or weak weapons that make it so you only do damage on a 6+ on 6 sided die

 

[Comrade Khan]

and guess what, that shit still happens frequently , you roll enough dice and it happens