General Chit-Chat Thread: A New Beginning

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Chris

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I liked his original 538 method and how he didn't seem to actually care about politics and was just a numbers nerd but now he's become too much of a numbers nerd with betting odds
 

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Death By Looch said:
Another reason why you shouldn't take poll results for facts
do people think I do this when I post them bc I also don't think they should be ignored either lol theres data from them, only dummies take the extreme of taking them for facts or ignoring them completely
 

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Bobby Barrows said:
Fun fact, 1876 Election had the highest voter turnout of any election before or since, 82.6%
Well, okay. That's pretty much impossible to beat, unless you go full fascist dictatorship with required voting :lol
 

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It feels like the wrestling ratings conversation lol they don't have to matter to you, you don't have to care about the numbers, but you shouldnt pretend advertisers don't
 

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Lolol well the 76 election was the one where basically the Democrats gave Rutherford B. Hayes the election as a Republican as long as he was willing to end Reconstruction and let black people be persecuted in the South.
 

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Chris said:
do people think I do this when I post them bc I also don't think they should be ignored either lol theres data from them, only dummies take the extreme of taking them for facts or ignoring them completely
I dunno what people think about you posting them. I personally don't think people shouldn't pay as much attention to them as many do.
 

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I think people should pay more attention to them but actually look at what they mean instead of thinking a 51% poll being wrong means everything is a lie
 

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But in general humans don't really get stats, that's why we've been able to name so many different fallacies
 

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what I get from the polls is most people are entrenched and not changing positions
 

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Like the easy example is something is given a 75% chance of happening. If that 25% chance happens, everyone loses their shit about how wrong it was. But I'd you look at it as 1 on 4 times this happens, they start to think a little different (if they aren't already seeing red for being lied to)
 

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does not seem like much sways either side much
 

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Chris said:
Like the easy example is something is given a 75% chance of happening. If that 25% chance happens, everyone loses their shit about how wrong it was. But I'd you look at it as 1 on 4 times this happens, they start to think a little different (if they aren't already seeing red for being lied to)
yeah people need to roll more dice and theyd understand more lol. 25% is still relatively good chance in gambling for example
 

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id for sure take a bet on a 25% high pay out bet lol
 

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banal example but I played a lot of Warhammer. In warhammer, there's really strong armor or weak weapons that make it so you only do damage on a 6+ on 6 sided die
 

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and guess what, that shit still happens frequently , you roll enough dice and it happens