AFL 2011

[ants]

Yeh I agree with that, the thing is, like I said, how are we those young players expected to learn when they are the most experienced in there fields. Example: Bock for defence in the Gold Coast is going to nurture blokes like Tape and Thompson and they will benefit from his ten years of experience. Fraser has been around for years, and Zac Smith will learn a heap about Ruckwork, and sneaking forward and getting back in defence from him. And not to mention Ablett, how much of an impact he will have on that midfield. The only thing GC didn't pick up was an experienced forward, and that has been evident this year from the way their forwards have played, it's too hard to build a side on 18 year old forwards, you NEED experience down there to lead.

That's why a Brendan Fevola or a Chad Cornes would be a perfect target for GWS, even if they can only get 2 years maximum out of them. Chad's proved this year that he can still play, and compete in the forward line, the way he goes about it would be good for the GWS youngsters to follow. Fev maybe not so much to follow, but to see the way he plays the position would be a great influence,

 

[Troy]

True but GWS are struggling to find suitable targets. Chad Cornes is a must because he can still play a role and like you said could play two more years. Would set a great example to the younger players as well with his work ethic. I wouldn't touch Fevola though, he is bad news and would be a bad influence on the young players. I don't think Sheedy could even put him in line. Be very interesting in who they are able to get at the end of the year.

In the games so far:

Collingwood def St Kilda by 19 points. Good game and Collingwood showed they were too good yet again. St Kilda are a much better team now though and could be a finals threat.

Hawthorn def Port by 165 points. Pathetic performance by Port, the second huge loss in a row for Port and the players just aren't doing enough. Primus said that after the match
he simply asked the players if they want to play for Port anymore. Fair enough question because the effort by some, especially the senior players wasn't good enough. The only promising thing is Butcher and Jonas both had good games on debut.

Carlton def Fremantle by 30 points. Good win for Carlton in the west and it keeps them in the top four. Fremantle finals chances are close to being over.

Essendon def Western Bulldogs by 49 points. Essendon controlled this game from the start and other than a comeback in the third quarter Bulldogs couldn't get close. Very strong performance by Essendon and it may have sealed their finals spot.

Brisbane def Gold Coast by 62 points. No fairytale this time for Gold Coast. Brisbane were simply too good for them but it doesn't really mean much for Brisbane except for a bit of bragging rights.

Tomorrow's games:

Melbourne vs. West Coast
Richmond vs. Sydney
Adelaide vs. Geelong

Results tomorrow should be pretty straight forward. I don't expect any surprises the only interesting thing will be how close the underdogs will be able to get.

 

[Andrew]

Primus LOL, I know his family very well tbh. Port needs to fold as a club if they're going to lose by 140+ every week. They haven't been in AFL for long yet one premiership whereas Fremantle hasn't won once but they manage to do well.

West Coast pulled a good win against Melbourne winning by 48 points

Sydney lost to Richmond in the upset of the round, WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT... wait... They lost by 43 points. WTF?! This puts Essendon for a lock in the top 8. My tips crashed and burned this week with that one.

Geelong played absolutely shithouse today and got lucky to escape by 11 points, Adelaide pulled all machines and played very contentedly, I watched the game and it was a great game of footy.

 

[Troy]

Port dominated the AFL with Brisbane in the early 2000's so they have done a lot more than Freo who have only made a couple of finals series. Port are in a terrible state now but West Coast showed this year that you can bounce back quickly. Port need to draft a couple of key position experienced players and just need an injury free pre-season to work on their game plan.

No surprise that Melbourne didn't get close to West Coast today. Melbourne have turned into a horrible side after a promising start to the season. West Coast are on track for a top four spot now.

Richmond winning surprised me and the margin was huge. Great win for them and I certainly didn't see that coming. Sydney just looked off colour today whereas everything clicked for Richmond.

Geelong vs. Adelaide was a fantastic game to watch. Adelaide came out firing early but couldn't convert early. Then when it looked like Geelong would run away with it Adelaide kept in touch right down to the final siren. Great performance by Adelaide. Both teams missed a lot of easy shots though.

 

[Troy]

How sweet it is to finally watch everything click for North. 98 point win over Fremantle in a performance which helps keep North's very very slim finals hopes alive. Excellent performance by all involved and it was a great spread of goal kickers with the most kicked by one player only being three goals. North just ran harder all game and were able to spread and find space. Going to need to place as good as that next week against St Kilda.

Last night Hawthorn looked like they were headed for a giant win against Carlton but Carlton fought back in the second half only to end up two goals short. Carlton will finish the season fifth now with West Coast taking fourth spot.

Adelaide beat Gold Coast by 61 points. In the first quarter it looked like Adelaide were on track for a 100+ point win but Gold Coast were much better after quarter time to keep the scoreline reasonably close in the final three quarters. That first quarter really hurt them. Scott Thompson had a day out with 51 possessions!

West Coast beat Essendon by 57 points. Essendon were one point up at half time but after that point West Coast kicked 14 goals to 4 to end with a comfortable win.

Collingwood beat Brisbane by 18 points. Great effort by Brisbane to stay that close to Collingwood. Always good to see when the players dig deep and put in an effort like that rather than limping home at the end of the season.

Tomorrow's games:

Sydney vs. St Kilda - St Kilda have been in great form in the second half of the season whereas Sydney have been a bit more up and down. Sydney are coming off a big loss to Richmond last week so will want to fight back but I think that St Kilda will be too good for them in the form they are in. As a North fan I really want Saints to win to keep North's finals hopes alive.

Port Adelaide vs. Western Bulldogs - Will the Bulldogs bounce back after Eade was let go? I think that they will be too good for Port who are simply in dreadful form.

Melbourne vs. Richmond - Hoping for a really good game here. Both teams in similar positions and it should turn into a good battle. Melbourne have been in horrific form the past month so I can't tip them and Richmond are coming off a good win against Sydney so I think they will win tomorrow.

 

[Troy]

Sydney vs. Saints surprised me. It was an ugly game to watch but Sydney dominated and would have won by a lot if they kicked straight. 15 point win in the end but 10.23 shows that it showed have been closer to a ten goal win. Dominated the midfield and a good last quarter gave them the win. Keeps their finals alive and now makes Saints spot uncertain.

Saints play North next week and it is pretty much do or die. If North lose then they can't make finals and if Saints lose they have to beat Carlton in Round 24 to get a finals spot. After the form of both teams this week I am more confident in North that we can win. Last time we played the Saints we lost by 9 points but we were slow and kicked to Petrie every time. We have a lot more forward options now and are a lot quicker.

At first it looked like the Bulldogs would run away with a massive win after scoring the first fifty odd points. Port had a good final quarter to keep the margin to "only" 60 points. John Butcher for Port was one of the few players who performed for them with 6 goals from 6 kicks.

Melbourne vs. Richmond was a great game to watch. Richmond had control in the first half but in the third quarter Melbourne kicked seven goals to one. Richmond fought back in the last to win by seven points.

Four teams are now battling it out for the final three finals spots and it won't be decided until the final round.

 

[Andrew]

I got 8/8!!!

Hope Sydney chokes next week and North beats Saints. I want North in the top 8! They have a huge chance to do so.

 

[Troy]

I got 7/8 only missed out on Saints. I had thought that with Swans coming off 6 loses from their last eight games versus Saints winning 6 of their last 7 it would be pretty clear cut but I was wrong. If North can beat Saints next week, and Richmond the week after, I am pretty confident that Carlton will beat Saints in Round 24.

Another thing about the Sydney/Saints game, the ground was terrible. Players couldn't bounce it where the new patches of grass were and they were lucky that there were no serious knee injuries out there. The AFL needs to stop playing games at ANZ Stadium because it isn't up to scratch.

 

[Andrew]

Should have seen Port vs WB.

That was shocking, everyone kept slipping over... almost made it look like Colonial Stadium of '04

 

[Troy]

Unfortunately because it was played in SA the game was on delay here so I didn't watch it. Surprised the ground was so bad since there was no rain overnight, it rained earlier in the week but there was nothing yesterday or today.

 

[ants]

Swans play Brisbane in Round 24, so they just need to win that and there in. We wont beat Geelong at Skilled, so its hardly choking.

If anyone drops out, I think St Kilda it may be, especially after Kangaroos massive win last night. But I still think St Kilda are a much better side when they play under the roof at Etihad. There record there on a Saturday night is about the same streak as Geelong's at Skilled Stadium so Kangaroos will be up against it.

Essendon play Port and should win that easily and that will cement there spot, they will finish 8th probably no matter what happens..

 

[Aniking]

I just used the Ladder Predictor found on the AFL website to work out what results need to occur to see which of the 5 teams remaining fill the 3 spots up for grabs. At the moment, the Ladder looks like this:

6th: St Kilda - T42, 108.3%, P20
7th: Sydney - T42, 106.1%, P20
8th: Essendon - T42, 99.6%, P21
----
9th: Nth Melb - T36, 104%, P20
10th: Fremantle - T36, 87.5%, P20​

Here is what I found (margins are by the Predictor's default, which is 12 points).

Simple Scenario
Collingwood defeats Fremantle
St Kilda defeats North Melbourne

Essendon, St Kilda and Sydney automatically qualify for the Finals regardless of the results of their remaining games.


Likely Scenario (aka "St Kilda Scenario")
Next Week
Collingwood defeats Fremantle
Geelong defeats Sydney
North Melbourne defeats St Kilda
Essendon defeats Port Adelaide

6th: Essendon - T46, 100.2%, P22
7th: St Kilda - T42, 107.1%, P21
8th: Sydney - T42, 105%, P21
----
9th: Nth Melb - T40, 104.5%, P21
Fremantle cannot make the Finals.

Following Week
Sydney defeats Brisbane
Carlton defeats St Kilda
North Melbourne defeats Richmond
Essendon has the Bye

6th: Sydney - T46, 105.4%, P22
7th: Essendon - T46, 100.2%, P22
8th: Nth Melb - T44, 104.9%, P22
----
9th: St Kilda - T42, 106%, P22

In this Scenario, Sydney would face Essendon at the SCG, whereas North Melbourne would likely face Carlton at the MCG(?) providing West Coast win just 1 of their final 2 matches. They face Brisbane (A) and Adelaide (H), so it's highly likely.


Essendon Scenario
Next Week
Collingwood defeats Fremantle
Geelong defeats Sydney
North Melbourne defeats St Kilda
Port Adelaide defeats Essendon

6th: St Kilda - T42, 107.1%, P21
7th: Sydney - T42, 105%, P21
8th: Essendon - T42, 99.1%, P22
----
9th: Nth Melb - T40, 104.5%, P21
Fremantle cannot make the Finals.

Following Week
If North Melbourne defeats Richmond, Essendon are out of the Finals. The only way they may survive is if Sydney/St Kilda get absolutely crushed by Brisbane/Carlton, which is HIGHLY unlikely.


Sydney Scenario
Next Week
Collingwood defeats Fremantle
Geelong defeats Sydney
North Melbourne defeats St Kilda
Essendon defeats Port Adelaide

6th: Essendon - T46, 100.2%, P22
7th: St Kilda - T42, 107.1%, P21
8th: Sydney - T42, 105%, P21
----
9th: Nth Melb - T40, 104.5%, P21
Fremantle cannot make the Finals.

Following Week
Brisbane defeats Sydney
Carlton defeats St Kilda
North Melbourne defeats Richmond
Essendon has the Bye

6th: Essendon - T46, 100.2%, P22
7th: Nth Melb - T44, 104.9%, P22
8th: St Kilda - T42, 106%, P22
----
9th: Sydney - T42, 104%, P22

In this Scenario, Essendon would face North Melbourne at the MCG(?), whereas St Kilda would likely face Carlton at the MCG(?) providing West Coast win just 1 of their final 2 matches. They face Brisbane (A) and Adelaide (H), so it's highly likely.


Fremantle Scenario
Next Week
Fremantle defeats Collingwood
Geelong defeats Sydney
North Melbourne defeats St Kilda
Essendon defeats Port Adelaide

6th: Essendon - T46, 100.2%, P22
7th: St Kilda - T42, 107.1%, P21
8th: Sydney - T42, 105%, P21
----
9th: Nth Melb - T40, 104.5%, P21
10th: Fremantle - T40, 88.7%, P21

Following Week
If Fremantle defeat the Western Bulldogs, they can only make the Finals if St Kilda, Sydney and North Melbourne all lose OR only 1 of them wins. If 2 of them win, Fremantle cannot make the Finals.


Surprise Scenario
Next Week
Fremantle defeats Collingwood
Sydney defeats Geelong
St Kilda defeats North Melbourne
Port Adelaide defeats Essendon

6th: St Kilda - T46, 108.6%, P21
7th: Sydney - T46, 106.5%, P21
8th: Essendon - T42, 99.1%, P22
----
9th: Fremantle - T40, 88.7%, P21
Nth Melb cannot make the Finals.

Following Week
If Fremantle defeats Western Bulldogs, Essendon are out of the Finals.


OR


Next Week
Fremantle defeats Collingwood
Sydney defeats Geelong
North Melbourne defeats St Kilda
Port Adelaide defeats Essendon

6th: Sydney - T46, 106.5%, P21
7th: St Kilda - T42, 107.1%, P21
8th: Essendon - T42, 99.1%, P22
----
9th: Nth Melb - T40, 104.5%, P21
10th: Fremantle - T40, 88.7%, P21

Following Week
If Sydney lose and St Kilda win, they swap positions and end 6th & 7th no matter what. If they both lose, Sydney stays 6th.
If St Kilda lose and only North Melbourne/Fremantle win, they finish 8th and Essendon don't make the Finals.
If St Kilda lose and both North Melbourne and Fremantle win, both St Kilda and Essendon don't make the Finals.
If both North Melbourne and Fremantle lose, St Kilda and Essendon make the Finals regardless of St Kilda's result.
​

So yeah, there are the various scenarios. Many of them could be a little different, but the named Scenarios are if those teams lose their emaining games but the other teams results continue by the "Likely Scenario". Obviously the final Scenario is quite unlikely, but it's interesting to see how just 1 result can change so much.

Just so you know, North Melbourne don't have their own Scenario as I have had them win their remaining matches every time, so basically their Scenario is intertwined with the rest. That's just how it worked out wierdly enough.

 

[Troy]

Nice work Aniking. It is very interesting to see how much it can change in the next two rounds depending on how a few results go. For North it is now very simple, we have to win our last two games or we are out of finals contention. The only way I see a change in the final eight is if North manage to beat St Kilda next week, no other options seems feasible. I will be glued to the tv, thankfully it is live on Ten, this saturday night watching the North/Saints game and hoping that we can get over the line. It should be a good game no matter the result as I think it will be more free flowing than the last time we played.

 

[Andrew]

North vs. Saints will be a ripper of a game.

I reckon Geelong vs. Sydney will be decent.

 

[ants]

I can only pray thay the Swans and Geelong game is decent. I'm in a box down here for the game, so it should be a great day as long as the game isn't a whitewash.

On a sidenote, Jarrad McVeigh's four week old daughter passed away yesterday after having heart problems from when she was born. McVeigh won't be making the trip down to Geelong, which is probably the last thing on his mind right now. If anything is going to inspire the Swans to beat Geelong down here, surely that is it. Condolences to the McVeigh family, and I hope the Swans can get the job done.