US Midterm Elections 2010

[Axis]

For discussion on the upcoming midterm elections. Nothing too exciting is happening in any general elections, but some primaries are very interesting. A few different stories that I'm following.

- The Florida Senate race just got really really interesting a couple weeks ago, when Governor Charlie Crist dropped out of the Republican primary to run as an Independent, due to Marco Rubio killing him in the polls. Everybody expected the Republican nominee to slaughter the Democrat (they threw out some 43-year-old n00b named Kendrick Meek, a graduate of the grand ol' Florida A&M), but this makes November incredibly exciting. Meek is still way down in the polls, even in a three-way race, but I suppose its possible. Crist is up on Rubio by about 3-points from most polls I've seen. Many mainstream Republicans that backed Crist originally (e.g. McCain and Graham) have now backed off. Rubio is a Tea Party sweetheart, but he also has the backing of many figures that are liked by Floridians across the spectrum, namely Jeb Bush (who, despite the last name, has a lot of popularity in this state). I love the idea of an Independent Senator from Florida (Crist has not even pledged which party he would caucus with), but it's all too obvious that he's doing this only to win, not to escape party politics. Maybe someday there will be a Senator that's truly free of party chains, but I don't think that it will be Charlie Crist.

-Harry Reid is in tons of trouble over in Nevada. He's down by about 10 points against any one of the three Republican frontrunners. He hasn't dipped into his war chest much though, and rest assured he's got a huge one from big name donors. I expect to see the gap close a lot, and big names in the Democratic Party (like Clinton and Obama) visit Nevada to help him out, because losing their Senator Majority Leader wouldn't be good at all.

-Joe "Who's That?" Sestak is giving political veteran Arlen Specter the fight of his life. A couple years ago, when Democrats gained control of Congress, Specter switched from Republican to Democrat. It wouldn't have been so bad if he hadn't switched every political position he held along with him. Now, the simple but intelligent long-time Navy veteran Joe Sestak is looking to nab the Democratic nomination, and for the first time since their battle began about eight months ago, he's up in some polls, albeit only by a point or two. When Specter went after Sestak military record, there was a huge backlash, and that may cost him. As for the general direction, the Republican nominee Pat Toomey (who would be in Sestak's position if Specter had stayed Republican), is beating Specter by as much as 10 points in the polls, though he's only beating Sestak by 2 or 3. I'm hoping for Sestak to beat Specter, both because I like him more than Specter and because it will make the Pennsylvania general election another slobber knocker. I've heard the idea thrown around that Specter could pull a Crist and run as an Indepdent, but that would make things awkward because he's had very strong backing from the White House, the PA Governor, and the PA Democratic Party already.

-John McCain has lost a lot of respect from me. He got pulled through the mud a lot in the '08 election and was hated on by those who supported Obama just because he was the other option. I was not a huge McCain fan, but the guy was always a class act. Now, he's abandoned all of his principles to fend off another Tea Party sweetheart in the primary. He's up by about 10 points in his primary, but that's at the expense of doing a 180 on immigration (leaving his long-time friend Lindsay Graham alone to reach across the aisle), climate change (again, leaving Graham to be the sole bipartisan Republican), and muting his stance on issues like Don't Ask Don't Tell, bank bailouts, and Guantanamo Bay. It was the icing on the cake when he said that he never considered himself to be a Maverick .

I would have loved to see some sort of coalition between Crist, Specter, and McCain running as Independents, vowing to work together and with Liebermann to break the mold of having to pledge allegiance to a party instead of the country. Unfortunately, Crist's motives are questionable, Specter's are clearly selfish, and McCain abandoned his honor to keep his seat.

Discuss here any thoughts, and any new developments on any of the Senate/House/Governor races.

 

[Italian Outsider]

I'm afraid this is a way too much serious topic for the forum .
I myself have little to zero interest in non-presidential american elections, they are irrelevant to us europeans; not to mention the lack of knowledge on the subject.
I love you for the attempt though.

 

[Quintastic One]

You're enthusiasm is awesome, but I don't see the epicness of these situations. Beyond the fact that the Senate Majority leader is currently losing ground in his State and as a whole if the Republicans totally slaughter any significant majority the Democrats have overall then they can filibuster any and every future legislation implemented by Obama or other powerful Democrats.

So this election season is very important indeed, but I don't think it's so important for me to pay attention to every little Senate squabble going on in States that I have no power over the results in the first place. It's great to be excited in your local and regional politics, but I just can't find myself enthralled with what's going on in other states unless it has more impact on a countrywide scale.

The Tea Party movement is very dangerous to conventional politics as this is the firs time in our history that we've ever had a political "third" party that has a chance at scoring significant seats in the Senate and House other than your standard Red/Blue demographic. So no matter who wins in what state, if TEA Party members get elected, expect to see alot of change in the coming landscape of American politics as we know it.

 

[Axis]

Wow, pretty big stuff coming out of tonight.

-The Pennsylvania Senate race is now: Joe Sestak (D) vs Pat Toomey (R). After holding onto the senate seat for thirty years, Specter has lost his job. Sestak is further to the left than Specter, but at the same time Sestak has also been presented in a very positive light the last few months, and he will probably further project that at having toppled Sen. Specter. Toomey is currently polling better than Sestak, which isn't surprising given the backlash that the Democrats have felt this whole year. It's tough to say who will be in the lead come November. Neither Toomey nor Sestak will be able to cast themselves as centrists; they are quite conservative and quite liberal, respectively. This race will be more of a measure of which direction the ideological winds are blowing strong, at least for Pennsylvania. Unless something unexpected happens from now until November, in a very premature prediction, I predict Sestak over Toomey. I'll probably post more on Sestak once I read more about him. From what I've read so far though, I really really like him, which probably is effecting my prediction.

-Rand Paul defeated Trey Grayson to grab the Republican nomination in the Kentucky senate race. This is probably a bigger indication of the "anti-incumbent" swing than the PA race, even though neither guy was an incumbent. I say this because Grayson was simply a stronger candidate than Specter in a primary battle. Plus the fact that Grayson was endorsed by Senate Minority leader (and senior Kentucky Senator) Mitch McConnell, Dick Cheney, and possible 2012 presidential candidate Rick Santorum. Lots of "big" money was pumped into Grayson's campaign, but Rand Paul (son of Rep. Ron Paul, libertarian sweetheart) ran a very smart grassroots campaign, fueled by the Tea Party movement, and furthered by national news coverage. In the end, Paul won nearly 60% of the primary votes, with Grayson only garnering 35%. Pretty embarrassing for McConnell, who may have just found out he doesn't wield much influence in his own state. Rand Paul will be facing Democrat Jack Conway, who today won a far closer, but far less interesting primary battle. However, Kentucky is a traditionally strong Republican state. Adding in the Tea Party movement and, again, the recent backlash against Democrats, I'm predicting Paul over Conway.

-Incumbent Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is fighting off a primary challenge from the more liberal Lieutenant Governor Mark Halter. Exit polls show her ahead, but even if she wins, she'll need more than 50% to prevent a runoff. Due to the number of candidates in that race, it's possible that she'll win with less than 50%, and a runoff doesn't look good for her. It doesn't really matter who wins in my opinion. Both Halter and Lincoln are down by 15 - 20 percentage points against the Republican nominee (Boozman). In my eyes, they're fighting over second place, which doesn't get a seat in the US Senate. So, in keeping with the prediction theme, I'm calling John Boozman as the next Senator from Arkansas.

Those were the senate primaries today: Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Arkansas. Any way you slice it, there's a huge anti-establishment movement right now in the US. Whether that continues until November, we'll have to see. I'm thinking it will.

There were also some other primaries in those states, for house seats, governorships, etc. House primaries tend not to be too exciting, as party establishments tend to handpick them, thus eliminating the excitement of a close race. And I don't really care who the governor of another state is, as virtually nothing they do effects Florida. We could have a close Governor race in Florida in November, though, so I'll talk about that then. That said, there was one noteworthy House race (not primary) today, going back to Pennsylvania:

A special election today for the late John Murtha's (D) House seat. It pitted Democrat Mark Critz against Republican Tim Burns. I've read it described as a "conservative Democratic" district, which makes sense given it's voting history. Cool fact, courtesy of a Wikipedia peak: it's the only congressional district that voted for Kerry in '04 and McCain in '08. This race received a lot of national attention, as Democrats consider it a stronghold (mainly given the political power that Murtha held in the House) and Republicans saw it as a great opportunity to flip a House seat prior to November. Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi flew in to support Critz. Burns used national issues to try to take advantage of the backlash against Democrats. Leading up to it, the numbers were very tight. In the end, the Democratic Mark Critz has been projected as the winner. Some attribute it to the fact that there was a very high Democrat turnout due to the close Sestak/Specter race. Others attribute it to the still-strong influence and message of Pelosi and the White House. We'll probably figure out who was right in November.

Fun day for politics. The next big day is June 8 -- the primary date for California.

 

[Axis]

Does ANYBODY on this forum pay attention to politics?

 

[Italian Outsider]

I could debate about Wilders possible election in the Netherlands, Angela Merkel and the Eurozone, the Saudi Wahabites trying to spread their bullshit religion, but American congressmen and senators? Who cares.. fuck that.
The only interesting news coming from USA recently was Arizona banning ethnic studies for being racist towards whiteys.

 

[Quintastic One]

Does ANYBODY on this forum pay attention to politics?

Once again, I appreciate your effort, but it's just been you, myself and TIO posting in this thread because nobody gives a shit anymore. I lost all my enthusiasm for politics after Obama won the Presidency and continued the trend of the same old shit that I've come to expect from every mainstream politician. Double talk, lies, covering up of those lies, not keeping with campaign promises that were only made to gain votes, then doubletalking some more to "clarify" that what they meant by "campaign promises" they actually said "Stuff that might happen if I'm in office, but don't bet on it".

It's always going to be Politician A Vs. Politician B who all disagree on a set standard of arbitrary topics that nobody actually cares about. What I mean by that especially is that the major topics that were featured in the 2008 Elections, all McCain and Obama ever debated about was the Housing Crisis, Iraq & Alternative Energy. Neither of them gave any straight answers in regards to REAL topics that the average American cared about. Like Gay Marriage, Abortion, Education, Living Wages & cracking down on Big Money Corporations for their greed and deception. Even if any of these topics were brought up, like in the Second Debate, they were gone over briefly with doubletalk for answers that spun around the question so that neither of them had to flat out say "Yes or No" on key issues. That was my major problem with Obama's electibility and my confidence to vote for him, because he NEVER answers any questions like an honest man.

And no matter who becomes elected they are still going to be controlled by big money corporations and lobbyists as they hemmorage money to wall street, the automotive industry, international bankers & special interests. When politics become more of a matter of Government Puppet #1 Vs. Lesser Evil Government Puppet #2, the puppet show stops being interesting.

Nothing changes, no matter who I vote for, so why should I care what's going on in Kentucky when neither of those chosen candidates are going to be able to make any better of a difference than anyone before them?

 

[Jon Honcho]

Once again, I appreciate your effort, but it's just been you, myself and TIO posting in this thread because nobody gives a shit anymore.

I can only speak for myself. You're right. I don't care anymore. Politics have been ambiguous and corrupt since, well, forever. As long as there is money and power to be had, there will be suits from Yale or Duke that want it.

I live by the great George Carlin creed of not voting or following politics since it's all bullshit.

What are my options? Rachel Maddow? Bill O'Reilly? Sean Hannity? Olbermann? They are all self-important assholes. Pundits aside, what else? Nancy Pelosi? Obama? It's all a big fuckin scheme.