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Sorry, it's 3, thought I read "5."
Well, Brock has a track record at summerslam and we all know he's coming back for that ppv. As far as I know, Brock is 4-1 at summerslam. It seems to be his ppv. Much like hell in a cell is said to be triple h's match.
I just don't see Brock coming back a this ppv to lose. Even if he's cheated, still eating a loss doesn't make sense for him. I do feel that roman will have the belt again... And he will still be the one to beat Brock one on one at mania 32. But, I still see Brock having to defend it against roman again. It would make roman look bigger, too. He has to try and overcome what he couldn't do last year.
This would mean that roman would have to win the rumble again, which may be the case. I do like your idea of Brock winning the rumble and that might happen, but I guess this all depends on where WWE wants to go.
All of that is exactly what has me convinced that Lesnar isn't walking out with the championship. Seth's odds of going up against Brock and surviving with the title still intact look astronomically slim on paper (I'm speaking from a kayfabe perspective here), but whenever the odds are stacked against a heel this high, they usually tend to find a way to slip away victorious at the end regardless.
Examine JBL's WWE Championship reign from 2004-05 as a good reference point. Even though their personalities are different, JBL's character was the same type of conniving, cowardly heel that Rollins is now, and anytime the odds seemed too great against JBL, he always managed to pull out a victory at the end regardless. He's in a Last Ride match against Undertaker where he can't just get himself disqualified like he did at Summerslam, Heidenreich interferes and saves him. He's in a non-elimination fatal-four way match against three guys who hate him, he manages to slip away with the victory anyway. He's trapped inside a Barbed Wire Steel Cage with the Big Show, he manages to just barely sneak by victorious again. The formula of Seth's title reign is pretty similar - he's trapped in a steel cage with Orton, but he retains. He's in a fatal-four way match with three men who despise him (where, like JBL, he doesn't have to take the pinfall to lose the title), he manages to win again. He's up against the likes of Brock Lesnar at the same event where Brock both decimated John Cena last year and made Seth's mentor HHH tap out a couple of years before that, and... well, you know the rest.