With what we know now then yeah it does seem highly likely lmao
With Labour yeah they do have a leadership problem for sure. There are no outstanding candidates. I believe Keir is doing ok now but he wasn't well received by any stretch when he got the gig. I think the party is largely just a mess in general though. A lot of their key personnel are just not up to scratch and I don't really think they have any kind of clear message for what they stand for. The old leader Corbyn (who suffered a pretty horrendous smear campaign) represented an outright left approach, whereas Keir is far more of a centrist. As was Blair. I think they've realised they stand a far greater chance of being elected by being more centre than left but Im not sure they really know what stances they want to take. One of the great missteps of the last election is they said they'd offer another referendum on brexit (which they did solely to offer an opposing stance to the Tories, who were pledging to "get brexit done", not many of their party even really believed it was the correct thing to do), people didn't want that at all. They wanted their vote to be respected and they wanted the whole ordeal to be fucking over lmao.
Although tbf I really don't follow politics all that closely, this is just the shit I pick up from the stuff I do occasionally read.