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That first scenario sounds awful imo. I really hope that doesn't happen, and thankfully I really don't think it will. That's more heel antics than realistic babyface antics, whether HHH is this "badass" or not.
Just seems a plausible way for HHH to lose while saving face in some way. It can easily work for a baby face if you play it up as the baby face getting too cocky for his own good and costing himself the victory. I'd prefer if Lesnar wasn't down and defeated before he won, though. I think you could still just do a straight out clean Lesnar victory and have HHH make the excuse that his victory at Wrestlemania really made him underestimate how much of a beast Lesnar was. That seems fine and logical enough.