Yes, I think ADR wins the title at NoC.
I posit three ideas:
1) ADR wins with a move that doesn't damage Sheamus too much (i.e., Sheamus is still awake and mobile at the end of the match; maybe even a roll-up or something), then Sheamus kicks out ADR. Out comes Dolph, who cashes in on ADR and becomes WHC.
2) Sheamus beats ADR clean, but an enraged ADR goes berzerk, gets a chair, knocks Sheamus out, "breaks" Sheamus' arm, something that puts him out cold. Out comes Dolph as ADR heads toward the back, extremely angry. Dolph cashes in on Sheamus and becomes WHC.
3) ADR beats Sheamus and nobody has a bad reaction after the match. ADR and Sheamus continue to feud. Dolph continues to be Mr. MITB (this also means Dolph would have to be involved in some other feud, which we don't see right now).
I actually like "3", as I don't think there's any need to rush the title onto Ziggler. He'll be Champ many times in his career, I have faith in that. Besides, there's nothing wrong with a guy carrying the briefcase for a while and cashing in at Elimination Chamber (after an exhausted, bloody champion lays prone in the middle of the ring unable to defend himself) or even Wrestlemania (it might blow the servers on this site out if Ziggler cashed in and became WHC at Wrestlemania). In short, don't be so impatient.
I don't like "2". It does nothing for anybody in the long run, except giving Dolph the title. ADR doesn't look strong. Sheamus doesn't look beatable. There's just no reason for it.
I have a feeling WWE will pull something like "1" on us. Sheamus loses dirty and rages against ADR, so DZ comes out and wins the title. ADR has cheated his way to victory, Sheamus has a case, Dolph has the title, and we get a three-way at the next PPV for the WHC between Dolph, Sheamus, and ADR.
wk