Anyone remember how Hitler claimed that he was "forced" to invade Austria, Czechoslovakia etc. in order to "protect" German-speaking citizens who were being "threatened" by nationalistic forces in those countries? You could take Hitler's speeches of that time and translate them into Russian and they are nearly word-for-word Putin's speeches today. Meanwhile in the West, instead of offering military assistance to Ukraine and stopping all this early on, we'll dither, talk about diplomacy and unspecified "costs" (does Obama plan to send Putin a bill?) and do nothing except allow the situation to deteriorate until Ukraine is wrecked by civil war. I am embarrassed to be a citizen of the West as we appear once again to be stumbling towards a really bad situation when it could be averted by decisive early action. As is too often the case, we remain in denial until it's too late, and then the costs are paid by everyone but most especially the people of Ukraine who really deserve so much better than this.
Let's be clear: Putin wants Ukraine unstable because if it became prosperous with the help of the West it would throw Russia's failure into stark relief. Putin is turning Russia into North Korea and he desperately wants to ensure that Ukraine doesn't play the role of South Korea across the border. Too many Ukrainians and Russians have family and friends in each other's countries for him to censor the flows of information. Putin's total failure as a dictator would become so apparent that even Russians would eventually rise up against his regime. By ensuring that Ukraine is a basket-case Putin can make Russia seem vaguely tolerable (at least for the well-connected).
If Ukraine requests military assistance the West should instantly provide it. Putin would back down - he knows his forces are toy soldiers in comparison to the combat-ready troops of the West. His troops retreated when Ukrainian soldiers offered the appearance of resistance; his troops would make a very hasty retreat indeed when confronted by 2 Para or the 101st Airborne and then Ukraine would have breathing room to sort out its own internal affairs. But we've become so afraid, so timorous, that instead we'll let Putin take eastern Ukraine and then... the Baltic states, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania... who knows where this will end? Weakness on one side always results in over-reach by the other. Always.
Let's be clear: Putin wants Ukraine unstable because if it became prosperous with the help of the West it would throw Russia's failure into stark relief. Putin is turning Russia into North Korea and he desperately wants to ensure that Ukraine doesn't play the role of South Korea across the border. Too many Ukrainians and Russians have family and friends in each other's countries for him to censor the flows of information. Putin's total failure as a dictator would become so apparent that even Russians would eventually rise up against his regime. By ensuring that Ukraine is a basket-case Putin can make Russia seem vaguely tolerable (at least for the well-connected).
If Ukraine requests military assistance the West should instantly provide it. Putin would back down - he knows his forces are toy soldiers in comparison to the combat-ready troops of the West. His troops retreated when Ukrainian soldiers offered the appearance of resistance; his troops would make a very hasty retreat indeed when confronted by 2 Para or the 101st Airborne and then Ukraine would have breathing room to sort out its own internal affairs. But we've become so afraid, so timorous, that instead we'll let Putin take eastern Ukraine and then... the Baltic states, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania... who knows where this will end? Weakness on one side always results in over-reach by the other. Always.
