I think Triple H is costing Axel the match somehow. Barrett will probably retain with a pin fall over Miz or something.
We're obviously about to get a full blown Triple H/Axel feud soon and I don't see why or how the Intercontinental Championship would be apart of that. It makes sense for Axel to win the title later at some point though, given his father's history with the title.
However, going from beating HHH to winning the IC Title later DOES seem like a bit of a step down though kayfabe wise, doesn't it? It makes me fear that Axel would end up jobbing to Triple H in their eventual actual match.