THE FIGHT
Roy Nelson vs. Frank Mir at this weekend's UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill.
ROY NELSON
Strengths - There's really no secret what Nelson's strength is standing. That huge overhand right packs a considerable amount of power, and he'll look to connect with it on Saturday. He's used it to score two impressive KO's in his UFC career so far, as well as to set up and earn victories prior to his UFC stint. This big, looping punch is Nelson's bread and butter, and he knows it. The big man is almost Dan Henderson-esque in the way he constantly throws that punch, looking to land the one KO shot. This is obviously a strong punch, and the power he gets is impressive. Nelson has a lot of mass in him, and he really throws it all into the punch, which helps him get that KO power.
One other thing I like about this big right is the way that over the years he has developed the rest of his stand-up technique around this shot. Earlier in his career, he just threw the punch again and again. More recently, he started adding a nice jab to set it up. That jab has developed into an effective weapon itself, as he briefly wobbled Junior Dos Santos with it. He's also improved his set-up and timing, particularly during his UFC time. In the Schaub fight, Nelson uses his jab to get Schaub swinging, and as soon as Schaub counters, Roy is ready with the big right and puts him down. Similarly, against Struve, Nelson keeps the right hand ready, drawing Struve into a slugfest, and then throwing it at the perfect moment when Struve's defenses are down. It's become a bit more calculated, which will help as more and more fighters anticipate it.
Weaknesses - One word: defense. Whenever Nelson has been in there against a skilled striker he has been hit. A lot. Part of the trouble is that he holds his hands in a slightly unorthodox manner, keeping them very high. The result is that he's using his elbows to block his face, but that leaves a wide opening right down the middle. Strikers like Junior Dos Santos have found that opening again and again, tagging Nelson repeatedly with straight punches. He also doesn't offer much head movement or speed in his defense, which contributes to these shots landing. One other problem is his tendency to drop his head, sometimes when he is striking, but more often when he gets hit. When getting caught, he will bring the head down, which both limits his vision and opens him up for the uppercut. Nelson has tightened these things up over the years, but he still has a huge gap right up the middle. So far he has relied on a very tough chin to help deal with that problem, but that's not a strategy that will yield long-term success at this level.
FRANK MIR
Strengths - For most of his career, Mir's striking skills were negligible. But starting with the Nogueira fight, he has reinvented himself as a kickboxer, and he's found success doing so. Mir boxes southpaw, and primarily sticks to his hands, although he has added some kicks in. His punching technique is strong, as he uses very nice combos to get inside and connect. One thing I really like in his new striking game is his movement - he always strikes while moving forward, which adds extra power to his punches and keeps his opponents on the defense. In general, he has sound boxing fundamentals, including good head movement, fast defense with his hands, and light footwork. The other big strength in Mir's stand-up is his ability to evolve to match his opponents. Against Kongo, he added leg checks to his defense - a useful technique since Kongo likes to kick. Against CroCop, he used his hand to defend the threat of that KO high kick. Mir trains well for his opponents and is able to add what he needs.
Weaknesses - Mir's striking problem is perhaps that he has become too much of a kickboxer. He's very calculated in his striking, which is a good thing usually, but can pose problems. He takes his time to set up combos, allowing him to typically be on the offense in those strike exchanges. But that calculation can cause him troubles when he is on defense. Against Carwin, we saw Mir allow the punches to accumulate to the point that he was taken out. The result of this careful calculation is that he sometimes lacks explosiveness, and when he needs to explode to get out of a bad situation, he doesn't always pull the trigger.
HEAD TO HEAD
I see Nelson's defensive difficulties playing a real factor here. When he has faced technically proficient strikers, he has faired poorly, and Mir has definitely developed into a technical striker. Look for Mir to use that forward motion and quick combos to punch through Nelson's defenses and land up the middle. As for Nelson's big power shot - this is where Mir's ability to study and adapt will come in to play. Mir will know that strike is coming, and he'll be ready for it. Add in the fact that Mir will be in southpaw, which Nelson has not had to deal with much, and Mir's ever evolving stand-up skill, and I see him being able to steadily outpoint Big Country.
ADVANTAGE: FRANK MIR
For a completely different take on this fight, be sure to check out this great breakdown of Nelson and Mir's 2003 grappling match courtesy of MMA Mania.
