The Big 12 was arguably the most exciting conference from a championship perspective; it seemed like there were two different teams favored to make the championship every week and there's plenty of reason to think this will be the case this year as well. The championship game will be held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX between the teams with the top two conference records. This conference has the honor of kicking off the 2025 season when Iowa St takes on Kansas St in Dublin, Ireland on August 23.
Arizona finished last year in the lower half of the conference in scoring offense and rushing defense (hasn't finished in the top half since 2010 [Pac 10]). However they bring back 16 starters, have a second year coach, and 5 of their first 6 games are at home, so momentum may be their friend. A bowl game could be in their future, but I wouldn't count on the championship.
Arizona St was expected to finish at or near the bottom last year by nearly every party that does such things and wound up winning and making the playoffs. They have 16 returning starters from that team, so the +14 net turnovers may not be a big dropoff. They are definitely a favorite for the Big 12, but after last year, is that really a good thing?
Baylor may have had the best offensive line in the Big 12 (allowed less than 1.5 sacks per game in a conference where the 2nd lowest def. sacks per game was over 1.5) and all 5 starters are back this year. Coach Dave Aranda has a well earned reputation as a defensive coach and he has 8 starters returning on that side of the ball. The fans have reason to be thinking of a conference championship game and a playoff run.
BYU was 11-2 last year, but won't catch anybody by surprise this time. Half of their games, including both losses, were by 6 or fewer points. With a few key losses in personnel, they will likely fail to repeat last year's double digit wins
Cincinnati brings back 15 starters from a team a win shy of bowl eligibility. Their first 6 games include only one away game (one neutral sight). With a conference as tightly packed as the Big 12, they could make a lot of noise as far as who goes to the championship, but it probably won't be them.
Colorado brings back 11 starters from a team with +12 net turnovers on a team that included the Heisman winner (not returning). But this is still a very talented team with a coach who is a proven winner as a player, a coach, and a cancer survivor- in his third year, which is usually a step up. It's hard to think that Coach Deion Sanders will be satisfied by anything short of a championship, but he may have to live with dissatisfaction this year.
Houston has 16 starters returning in Willie Fritz's second year. Their greatest strength talent wise may be their special teams, which can make an average offense and/or defense look above average on the scoreboard. Fritz has won at every level, but he may need another year or two before he'll make it to to Arlington.
Iowa St is the conference runner-up after a few upsets got them to their first double digit win season in school history. This year they bring back 13 starters and may be even more talented, particularly in the running offense portion of the game. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic in Ames in 2025.
Kansas may have hit the portal harder than any other team in the conference and with 10 starters returning, they needed to. They get their home stadium back after last year's construction kept them out, which should be helpful as they have 7 home games (5 conference games) this year. Their defense may remain a liability that could keep them from getting back to bowl eligibility; that awaits to be seen.
Kansas St brings back 10 starters from a team that went 5-4 in conference. They have a favorable schedule, getting Iowa St at a neutral location and not playing another team tied for the best record until the last game of the season. They might be a few upsets away from a December date in Arlington and shouldn't need any upsets to go bowling.
Oklahoma St won their first three games by a combined 77 points (including a 2OT game) then proceeded to lose the next 9, giving the team their first losing season since 2005, Mike Gundy's first year as head coach. With so many new faces in the locker room, this could be a tough team to forecast, but I have faith in the Million Dollar Mullet to get his team back to bowl eligibility.
TCU may have an issue at running back, but the rest of the team looks solid. If they can overcome that hurdle, they also have a problem in the scheduling department: they play every team that finished tied for the best record in the conference last year and get three of those games on the road. They have the talent to have a great season, but if they get to Arlington, the Horned Frogs will have earned it.
Texas Tech brings back a whopping 21 starters from last year's 8-5 team. The Red Raiders are taking it easier than most in the nonconference schedule (3 home games vs. teams that combined for 8 wins, including an FCS team) and may be able to ride that momentum and experience to the Big 12 Championship game.
UCF has a whopping 67 new faces in the locker room this year after last year's 4-8 season. New coach Scott Frost has succeeded beyond any reasonable expectations at this school before (2016/2017), but may need some time before this team has the ability to equal that success. Of course, they don't need that level of success to reach a bowl this year and that could be a matter of how quickly Coach Frost can get his team to gel.
Utah had their first losing season since 2013 last year. They won their first 4 games then fell off. They apparently thought the problem was on offense as they parted ways with their OC midway through the season and have replaced him with a much more uptempo coordinator to operate their 10 returning offensive starters. They could be a contender for the conference championship this year and should go bowling if they live up to their potential.
West Virginia gets their successful coach Rich Rodriguez back after he nearly led the team to the BCS National Championship in 2007. With only 10 returning starters, Rodriguez may need some time to rebuild before he gets the team anywhere near that level of success and possibly a year or two before he gets them back to a bowl as this looks like a rebuilding year for the Mountaineers.
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