Strikeforce Results: FightMetric Report for Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum

[WrestlingSmarks News]

My friend turned to me after the final bell and said, "This is going to be close." I felt confident the judges would award last night's Strikeforce main event to Alistair Overeem, though I also expected the numbers to show Werdum with the advantage in volume striking. Werdum was hurt by his flopping and butt-scooting, not only because it's a passive action that looks bad in judges' eyes, but many of his flops coincided with Overeem punches, garnering a similar reaction as NBA and soccer players diving for fouls, only in reverse.

So, it did not shock me when Jimmy Lennon Jr. announced Alistair Overeem the winner of a unanimous decision, though I was surprised two judges scored every round for the Dutchman.

FightMetric, however, tells a different story:

• The effectiveness scores play out for Werdum 204-174, and the extrapolated ten-point must scoring also favors Werdum 29-28.
• As expected, the punching volume favors Werdum as well. He outlanded Overeem in every category, with the exception of body shots: 62-46 total strikes, 43-32 significant strikes, 51-31 head strikes.
• Overeem dominated the grappling by shutting Werdum down. Werdum went 1-12 in his takedowns, with Overeem standing up out of guard whenever Werdum successfully pulled the fight to the floor. FightMetric does credit Werdum for his kneebar attempt at the end of the fight.
• Related, FightMetric notes "Overeem is not credited with successful takedowns because a takedown requires that the attempting fighter establish a ground-based advantageous position."
• While all three rounds are contentious, the third was the closest round of the fight. The significant strike disparity is thin, 14-10 in Werdum's favor, but he did outland Overeem 24-16 overall. On the grappling side, Overeem fended off both of Werdum's takedowns, and, as noted, FightMetric credited Werdum for his kneebar attempt as time expired.

I scored the fight 29-28 myself, giving Werdum the first round. As Brent Brookhouse noted today, and as I've long argued, you can't look at fight stats and decide the winner. You have to take context into account.

Now, I'm not saying Overeem unequivocally won last night. There's a strong case that can be made in Werdum's favor. (There's also a strong case for a draw.) In a vacuum, without any personal attachment to either fighter, maybe I score it in Werdum's favor as well.

SBN coverage of Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum