Meltzer is basing this estimate on trending patterns along with reports from cable providers.
The strongest markets for UFC 130 look to have been Las Vegas, Calgary, Toronto, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Melbourne, Sydney, Edmonton, Halifax, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Ottawa, Montreal (interesting to note that market doing well for a non GSP fight),Honolulu, Sacramento, San Diego and Orlando.
It's interesting to note out of the 17 strongest markets, eight were Canadian cities and of all the American cities listed, only one (Orlando) was in the Eastern Time Zone.
UFC 130 is down around 700,000 buys from the show on the same weekend last year (UFC 114), which also was headlined by Jackson against rival Rashad Evans.
As of now, it appears UFC 131 is in line for a similar number. The two shows feel almost identical when it comes to promotion and hype the week of the show. As I wrote last month, the UFC is in for a rough summer on pay-per-view and this does nothing to make me think twice about that.