Round 1:
(West)
Spurs vs Jazz: Spurs in 5. The Jazz could give San Antonio some troubles inside with their bigs, specifically Jefferson, but I don't think history will be repeating itself with the Spurs losing to the 8 seed again. They have a healthy team, Parker is having his best season ever, and Duncan is looking like his old self again at the age of 35.
Thunder vs Mavericks: Thunder in 7. Maybe I'm giving Dallas too much credit, but they always play OKC tough. OKC won the season series 3 games to 1, but Dallas played them close with the exception of one game. No more Chandler in Dallas which really hurts them on the defensive end and is why I can't see them making a run in 2012, but they should give OKC fits, particularly with their zone defense. If Dirk catches fire as he did last season, the Thunder may be on upset alert.
Lakers vs Nuggets:Lakers in 6. Another intriguing matchup in the West, particularly since the Lakers won't have Artest (with the exception of a potential game 7) which means The Big Rooster may be going wild in this series. Can the depth of the Nuggets overcome the size and experience of the Lakers? I don't see it happening. Look for this series to mirror the first round matchup Denver had with OKC last season.. a lot of close games, but with the Nuggets coming up on the short end.
Clippers vs Grizzlies: Grizzlies in 6. Maybe it's because I really like Memphis and sort of hate the Clippers, but I think Memphis will have a relatively easy time with the Clippers. Yes, CP3 is a handful, but outside of that I don't think LA will have much for Memphis. Memphis is much bigger and athletic at the 2 & 3 spot with Tony Allen, OJ Mayo, and Rudy Gay, and also have the bigs to handle Blake Griffin (who will have his hands full on the other end with Z-Bo). Paul will do everything he can to keep the Clippers in it, but I'm giving the nod to Memphis.
(East)
None of these crappy series interest me besides the Heat/Knicks.
Bulls over 76ers in 4 or 5
Pacers over magic in 4
Celtics over Hawks in 6
Heat vs Knicks: Heat in 7. This series will be a dog fight. If the Knicks had a healthy Baron Davis or Jeremy Lin I would be tempted to pick the upset. Tyson Chandler, Amare, & Carmelo is as good a frontline as their is in the league. Iman Shumpert is an elite perimeter defender already as a rookie, and should be able to hold D-wade in check. The Melo/Bron matchup will be great to watch. I think we will see an old school series with a lot of low scoring games. This should be a dog fight that I don't see Miami clinching until game 7 in South beach.
Round 2:
San Antonio vs Memphis: Spurs in 7. A rematch of last year's first round upset when Memphis shocked the world and really came of age. I think they will give the Spurs all they can handle, but home court will be the difference that tilts things in San Antonio's favor.
OKC vs LAL: Thunder in 7. Another 7 game series for the Thunder, they will have their hands full, particularly down low with Bynum and Gasol. This is a legitimate toss up series IMO and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Lakers show up and take this one. Russell Westbrook has a tendency to shoot the Thunder out of some games, and he cannot afford to do so against the Lakers. Potential for some bad blood as Artest will be returning from suspension.
Heat vs Pacers- Heat in 4
Bulls vs Celtics- Bulls in 6. I could see the old guys giving Chicago some trouble, but not enough to get by.
Conf. Finals:
Spurs vs OKC- Spurs in 6. The Spurs excel at the things OKC sucks at. In the halfcourt, San Antonio runs a much more fluid and efficient offense. They take care of the ball while OKC turns it over as much as any team in the league. Both teams are good defensively, but I think the Spurs are a little better. They are more experienced, and gave the Thunder more trouble during the regular season than any team I saw them play. Popovich is a much better coach than Brooks.
Heat vs Bulls- Heat in 5. This series won't go much differently than it did a year ago. If the Bulls have their intensity and effort level matched by Miami, they don't have any outs in the series. LBJ is the official R-Rose stopper, as Rose can't do much of anything with LB guarding him. The Bulls don't have an answer for both Wade & LB on their end of the floor, only having Deng as a shut down perimeter defender and nobody to cover the other guy. Chicago's only hope IMO is to dominate the glass, especially the offensive glass. If they do that they can maybe extend the series to 6 or 7 games, but I can't see them winning it.
Finals
Spurs vs Heat. Heat in 6. I would love for my predictions to come true and to see this matchup in the finals (or Heat/Thunder would be great as well). At the end of the day though, it would take a LBJ choke job repeat of the 2011 finals for the Spurs to win IMO, and I can't see it happening again. I think it's finally time for the King to get over the hump.