The heavyweight showdown between Lesnar and Overeem isn't just a fantasty fight that hardcore fans have been pining over for the last couple of years however. There is far more on the line than bragging rights. There is the notion that both men are sitting on a tipping point on a bell curve of their careers. The outcome of their December 30th showdown could determine which side of that curve they fall on.
The pertinent question to ask is how the outcome will affect each fighter. Lesnar sits atop the bell curve as the epitome of success. He's popular, recognizable, draws in over one million pay-per-view buys, and is skilled enough to maintain his status as an upper-echelon fighter in the UFC's heavyweight division. He makes the most money out of any fighter in the UFC, and he isn't the champion.
In defeat however, Lesnar's stock could drop significantly. MMA is an unforgiving sport if you aren't consistently winning, and a brutal loss in Lesnar's return could turn off fans to the very thing that attracted them to him in the first place-- the idea that his physical make-up would thrash any and all comers. Sure, Velasquez was able to defeat Lesnar, but he's the champion now, right? What's going to happen if a virtual unknown defeats Lesnar in the first round?
I get the sense that the long-term ramifications of such an outcome could be detrimental to Lesnar's future. Lesnar will obviously make a boatload of cash based on pay-per-view cuts and his standard salary in the short term, but the intrigue surrounding him will surely drop.
Even more important are the rumors that Lesnar has considered retirement as an option. While I don't normally lend a platform to such rumors, it's difficult to ignore the frequency of those rumors. The constant issue of his low appetite for the sport is a consistent topic of discussion. It isn't produced out of thin air over and over again. There is some validity to the talk. Lesnar's health is a significant concern in his life, and a thrashing at the hands of Alistair Overeem could act as a tipping point for the eventual demise of his career.
Overeem is widely known among hardcore fans as one of the best heavyweight fighters in the world today, but he barely moves the needle with the UFC's casual fanbase. He's an unknown to most of the demographic tuning into The Ultimate Fighter and the occassional UFC Fight Night. Sharing a main event with the UFC's most powerful drawing power is Overeem's chance to catapult himself into the public eye. Not only does his destructive style of fighting create moments of awe, he's articulate, speaks English fluently, and possesses all the physical gifts to illicit oohs and ahhs from the superficial. In a nutshell, he has all the tools to become one of the UFC's few who can draw a crowd.
Whether or not he'll ever be able to accomplish that goal without defeating Lesnar is up in the air. We've enjoyed his feats of brutality, but will that matter if he's on the outside looking in to a majority of the fanbase? If Brock Lesnar defeats Alistair Overeem, does that dream have less of a chance of becoming a reality in the future?
Say what you will about America's infatuation with hard bodies and Adonis-like physiques. I just don't buy into it when it comes to mixed martial arts. Alistair Overeem has those gifts, but will that actually translate to an increase in public interest in him? I doubt it. It only helps in victory. He needs to win to have a legitimate shot at becoming a highly-relevant fighter. If that weren't the case, we'd all have Cheick Kongo fever right now.
The intangible consequences of the clash between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem are pivotal to the futures of both fighters. Overeem won't replace Lesnar's drawing power overnight in victory, but he could be well on his way to becoming a fighter who has the ability to draw a crowd. If he loses, Overeem will sit where he's sat for the longest time. He won't truly lose anything but chance, and he'll likely get another chance very soon.
Lesnar, on the other hand, has plenty to lose, but it's up to him whether or not the shock of a loss affects him mentally. I have no doubts that his continued presence in the sport, if he loses, will reap rewards for himself and the UFC. If he draws in 800,000 buys instead of one million, he'll still be the UFC's greatest asset. Lesnar could lose everything, however, if a loss to Overeem destroys his appetite to continue in this sport. There is much more on the line than title contention. The futures of both Lesnar and Overeem could be determined in the blink of an eye on December 30th.