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I feel like Vince got really bored of tag teams and like fired 3 quarter of those NXT guys before and during the pandemic so that's where I think they might have dipped. But it's a crazy hypothetical like you said. Jordan was the charismatic one and if he doesn't go down does his partner ever...
American Alpha probably would have went to AEW with FTR if they were still healthy (they were still heavily featuring that division and I think they'd have fallen to comedy jobbers with Vince once he got bored with the Angle story)